When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?

Details When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures? When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?

Jul 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008georl..3514703s&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 14, CiteID L14703

Other

22

Global Change: Abrupt/Rapid Climate Change (4901, 8408), Global Change: Impacts Of Global Change (1225), Global Change: Regional Climate Change, Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928)

Scientific paper

In the Essence project a 17-member ensemble simulation of climate change in response to the SRES A1b scenario has been carried out using the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model. The relatively large size of the ensemble makes it possible to accurately investigate changes in extreme values of climate variables. Here we focus on the annual-maximum 2m-temperature and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the simulated values and investigate the development of the parameters of this distribution. Over most land areas both the location and the scale parameter increase. Consequently the 100-year return values increase faster than the average temperatures. A comparison of simulated 100-year return values for the present climate with observations (station data and reanalysis) shows that the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, as well as other models, overestimates extreme temperature values. After correcting for this bias, it still shows values in excess of 50°C in Australia, India, the Middle East, North Africa, the Sahel and equatorial and subtropical South America at the end of the century.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures? does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures? will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1319268