Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
May 2001
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001agusm..sp41a01m&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2001, abstract #SP41A-01
Mathematics
Probability
7519 Flares, 7554 X Rays, Gamma Rays, And Neutrinos
Scientific paper
A statistical study is performed on X-ray flares stronger than C1 class that erupted during the solar maximum between 1989 and 1991. We have investigated the waiting-time distribution and the angular correlation function of successive flare pairs. The observed waiting-time distribution for the whole data is found to be well represented by a nonstationary Poisson probability function with time-varying mean flaring rates. The period most suitable for a constant mean flaring rate is determined to be 2--3 days by a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. We have also found that the waiting-time distribution for flares in individual active regions follows a stationary Poisson probability function m-mt with a corresponding mean flaring rate. Therefore the flaring probability within a given time is given by 1--mt, when the mean flaring rate m is properly estimated. It is also found that there are no systematic relationships between peak fluxes of flares and their waiting-time distributions. The above findings support the idea that the solar corona is in a self-organized critical state. A comparison of the angular distances of successively observed flare pairs with those of hypothetical flare pairs generated by random distribution shows a positive angular correlation within ~ 10o ( ~ 180 arc sec in the observing field) of angular separation, which suggests that homologous flares occurring in the same active region should outnumber sympathetic flares.
Choe Gwang-Son
Moon YaeEun
Park Young-Deuk
Yun Hong Sik
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