Variation of Embedding Dimension as one of the Chaotic Characteristics of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Indices

Computer Science – Performance

Scientific paper

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Space Weather, Chaos, Embedding Dimension, One Step Ahead Prediction Error, Solar Activity Indices, Geomagnetic Activity Indices.

Scientific paper

Solar and geomagnetic activity as one of the natural chaotic systems has unavoidable effects on earth, climate, satellites and space missions. Space weather is a term which generally refers to the dynamic, highly variable conditions in the geospace environment. This includes conditions on the sun, in the interplanetary medium, and in the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. Rapid changes in the near-Earth space environment can affect the performance and reliability of both spacecraft and ground-based systems. This can imply major problems due to communication, navigation, and reconnaissance satellite operational anomalies. One of the most important tools for eliciting the chaotic trends is the "Embedding Dimension". In this paper, the variation of Embedding Dimension for solar and geomagnetic activity indices especially during a well-known Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is considered. This storm is the major magnetic storm on 13 March 1989, which shuts down the power supply system in Quebec, Canada. The method of this paper is based on the fact that the reconstructed dynamics of an attractor should be a smooth map, i.e. with no self intersection in the reconstructed attractor. It is shown that the Embedding Dimension (and other chaotic characteristics) of some solar and geomagnetic activity indices during these storms vary rapidly.

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