Validation of Space Weather Products

Computer Science – Performance

Scientific paper

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2494 Instruments And Techniques, 6994 Instruments And Techniques, 2447 Modeling And Forecasting

Scientific paper

One of the key questions asked about a new Space Weather product is: "how good is it?" To address this question, the Air Force Research Laboratory Space Vehicles Directorate is undertaking to verify as necessary and perform validations of several existing Space Weather models and application products. The models and applications to be validated include: the Parameterized Real-time Ionospheric Specification Model (PRISM), for specific input and ground-truth data types, and map products showing regional Space Weather effects on satellite communication, HF communication, and satellite-based navigation systems. AFRL's approach to this validation and verification (VnV) process consists of several steps, each of which may be performed at first in a hands-on or expert-intensive mode, but with a goal of software enhancement/automation to improve the process and productivity of the studies. In general, empirical data is used both as input to drive the model or application to be validated, and as `ground-truth' against which the output of the model/application is compared via a systematic process that extracts comparable parameters and generates quantifiable performance metrics. In the current effort, it is expected that software tools will be developed that will enable a user to simply fill in a configuration file to execute a validation. The file would allow the user to stipulate which data to use, the setup conditions, the number of runs, and the analysis programs to execute. A mature tool would be designed to be modular and portable so as to enhance its potential for future use. The goals of this effort are to define processes for VnV of each Space Weather product, perform validation by exploiting automation, (thereby facilitating additional `production validation'), and support the ultimate capability of real-time metrics and confidence factors for Space Weather products. Approaches, data and procedures for various products will be described.

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