Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
May 2011
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011aas...21811206t&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, AAS Meeting #218, #112.06; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 43, 2011
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
Confirmation of candidate transiting planets is usually achieved by spectroscopic means, with the detection of the reflex motion of the star, a line bisector analysis, or observation of the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect. Many of the most interesting candidate transiting planets identified by the Kepler Mission cannot be confirmed in this way, including Earth- or super-Earth-size planets in the habitable zone of their parent stars. The planetary masses are so small, and/or the orbital periods so long, that their Doppler signal is undetectable with current instrumentation. Additionally, the stars may be too faint, too chromospherically active, or rotating too rapidly for precise radial-velocity measurements. Transit timing variations in multiple systems may also be so small as to be unmeasurable in many cases. Lacking these methods of dynamical confirmation, the Kepler team has developed ways of "validating" candidates by modeling the photometry to place constraints on the wide range of false positives ("blends") that can mimic the transit light curves, including background eclipsing binaries and hierarchical triple systems. This presentation will describe this modeling, and how it is combined with complementary constraints from follow-up observations and centroid motion analysis to estimate the frequency of blends, and ultimately the probability that a candidate is a bona-fide planet. Funding for this Discovery mission is provided by NASA's Science Mission Directorate.
Fressin François
Gilliland Ron L.
Henze Christopher E.
Kepler Science Team
Lissauer Jack . J.
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