Validation and Implementation of Neutral Density Models for Space Weather Forecast Laboratory

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[0355] Atmospheric Composition And Structure / Thermosphere: Composition And Chemistry, [7924] Space Weather / Forecasting, [7969] Space Weather / Satellite Drag

Scientific paper

Efforts are underway to assess and validate key empirical and physics-based models for neutral density specification for the thermosphere. One empirical model will be incorporated into the Space Weather Forecast Laboratory (SWFL) which is a test bed for a future operational capability at Air Force Weather Agency. An important step is to validate available empirical models to assess their nowcasting and forecasting potential. The baseline or reference model against which other models are compared is the Jacchia-Bowman 2008 (JB2008) model. We examine this model as well as the JB2006, NRL MSIS-2000 and J70 models against available neutral density data over the latest solar cycle, including daily drag, HASDM, and CHAMP/GRACE accelerometer measurements. A one-day and two-day forecast for JB08 using predicted solar proxies is compared to subsequent global HASDM neutral densities.

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