Validating the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) Algorithms Using Data from the COSMIC Campaigns

Details Validating the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) Algorithms Using Data from the COSMIC Campaigns Validating the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) Algorithms Using Data from the COSMIC Campaigns

May 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007agusmsa23a..04d&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2007, abstract #SA23A-04

Other

2400 Ionosphere (6929), 2415 Equatorial Ionosphere, 2439 Ionospheric Irregularities, 2447 Modeling And Forecasting

Scientific paper

Models have been developed at AFRL that will ingest Communication/Navigation Forecasting System (C/NOFS) data in order to forecast the ionospheric density and the presence of irregularities. (The C/NOFS satellite is scheduled for launch in June 2008 into a low inclination (13°), elliptical (~ 375 x 710 km) orbit.) We present a validation exercise of the C/NOFS models using ground and satellite instrument data obtained as part of the 2006 COSMIC campaigns. The C/NOFS forecast models can be initialized using one of the assimilative GAIM models, or alternatively, using a physics-based model driven by the electric fields and winds, as will be measured by C/NOFS. In this talk we will compare the several forecast methods, using metrics to show their strengths and limitations. The electric field measured by the incoherent radar at Jicamarca, Peru is used as input for some of the model runs. Close to Jicamarca, the density profile derived from the model usually shows satisfactory agreement with ground truth data. Modeling the variation of ionospheric density as a function of latitude, however, has proven to be more difficult, due to the lack of knowledge of the neutral winds. The electron density profiles inverted from COSMIC measurements of GPS radio occultations are compared with the electron density profiles specified by the models and to the incoherent scatter observations at both Jicamarca and Arecibo. The validation studies clearly demonstrate the need for improved measurements of ionospheric and thermospheric parameters in the equatorial and off-equatorial regions. Particularly problematic is the determination of off-equatorial E region conductivity. C/NOFS, COSMIC and other collaborative ground and satellite observations will hopefully provide these measurements and greatly enhance our ability to predict ionospheric electron densities and the formation of scintillation-producing irregularities.

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