Using inverse model to evaluate future CO_2 observations: What have we learnt from multimodel transport

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A time-independent inverse model is used for estimating the uncertainties in annual mean fluxes to evaluate the utility of future observations of CO_2. Measurements at ground stations and from the satellites in middle/upper troposphere (MT/UT) are considered in order to better constrain the flux estimations. The flux uncertainty reduction due to surface observations is governed by the simulated signal to noise ratio of the sources near the ground and that for the satellite measurements depend on transfer of source signals from ground to the MT/UT. It has been shown that optimal measurement stations on the ground should be placed mainly in the equatorial lands; while satellite data frequencies are larger in the middle and high latitude troposphere for the occultation-based vertical profile measurements of CO_2 by design. We used simulation results of sixteen tracer transport models produced by TransCom-3 participants in order to elucidate the effects of model transport on inverse model estimates of the observation efficiency. The important factors identified are the characteristics of the model transport in and above the planetary boundary layer (PBL), which is also different in the equatorial region and the midlatitudes. Models with slower mixing between the surface and free troposphere ensure larger flux uncertainty reductions due to the surface measurements of CO_2 (Patra et al., Tellus, in press). On the other hand, a model with faster transport of source signals from the surface across the PBL suggests that the free tropospheric measurements using satellites are more efficient in decreasing the flux estimate uncertainties as compared to other models.

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