Using infrared satellite data to drive a thermo-rheological/stochastic lava flow emplacement model: A method for near-real-time volcanic hazard assessment

Details Using infrared satellite data to drive a thermo-rheological/stochastic lava flow emplacement model: A method for near-real-time volcanic hazard assessment Using infrared satellite data to drive a thermo-rheological/stochastic lava flow emplacement model: A method for near-real-time volcanic hazard assessment

Oct 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008georl..3519307w&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 19, CiteID L19307

Statistics

Computation

5

Volcanology: Effusive Volcanism, Volcanology: Eruption Mechanisms And Flow Emplacement, Volcanology: Remote Sensing Of Volcanoes, Volcanology: Volcano Monitoring (7280)

Scientific paper

We combine two flow simulation models to provide a computationally efficient means of predicting the final dimensions of active lava flows. By using a stochastic approach to predict all the downhill paths that a lava flow could possibly follow and a thermo-rheological model to terminate these paths once the predicted cooling-limited length for the flow has been attained, this approach allows for rapid assessment of the area likely to be inundated by lava. The 1991-1993 eruption of Mount Etna is used as a case study. Lava effusion rate exerts a strong control on the maximum length a lava flow can attain, and we demonstrate how the model can be driven by time-varying effusion rates, obtained from infrared satellite data. As such data are obtained in near-real-time, this approach allows flow simulations to be updated in a timely manner, in response to changing eruption conditions.

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