Use of Monte Carlo Methods for Evaluating Probability of False Positives in Archaeoastronomy Alignments

Details Use of Monte Carlo Methods for Evaluating Probability of False Positives in Archaeoastronomy Alignments Use of Monte Carlo Methods for Evaluating Probability of False Positives in Archaeoastronomy Alignments

Jan 2012

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2012aas...21911504h&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, AAS Meeting #219, #115.04

Mathematics

Logic

Scientific paper

Simple Monte Carlo simulations can assist both the cultural astronomy researcher while the Research Design is developed and the eventual evaluators of research products. Following the method we describe allows assessment of the probability for there to be false positives associated with a site. Even seemingly evocative alignments may be meaningless, depending on the site characteristics and the number of degrees of freedom the researcher allows. In many cases, an observer may have to limit comments to "it is nice and it might be culturally meaningful, rather than saying "it is impressive so it must mean something". We describe a basic language with an associated set of attributes to be cataloged. These can be used to set up simple Monte Carlo simulations for a site. Without collaborating cultural evidence, or trends with similar attributes (for example a number of sites showing the same anticipatory date), the Monte Carlo simulation can be used as a filter to establish the likeliness that the observed alignment phenomena is the result of random factors. Such analysis may temper any eagerness to prematurely attribute cultural meaning to an observation. For the most complete description of an archaeological site, we urge researchers to capture the site attributes in a manner which permits statistical analysis. We also encourage cultural astronomers to record that which does not work, and that which may seem to align, but has no discernable meaning. Properly reporting situational information as tenets of the research design will reduce the subjective nature of archaeoastronomical interpretation. Examples from field work will be discussed.

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