Updating of ADAPT predictions of sunspot activity

Details Updating of ADAPT predictions of sunspot activity Updating of ADAPT predictions of sunspot activity

Jul 1978

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1978asc..rept.....h&link_type=abstract

Final Report, Nov. 1977 - Jun. 1978 ADAPT Service Corp., Reading, MA.

Computer Science

Prediction Analysis Techniques, Solar Activity, Solar Cycles, Sunspots, Algorithms, Computer Programs, Eigenvectors, Solar Magnetic Field, Sun

Scientific paper

An eigenvector analysis procedure was used to analyze and develop algorithms for predicting sunspot numbers. The predictors in these algorithms consist of sunspot numbers from the preceding two solar cycles and magnetic index data from the preceding cycle. Predictions are presented for cycles 21 and 22. The sunspot activity for cycle 21 is predicted to remain below 100 until early 1980 when it will rapidly reach a peak of approximately 120. The two sigma accuracy on these estimates is approximately 20 sunspot numbers in the region of the peak and 10 sunspot numbers early and late in the cycle. Algorithms were also developed for predicting the period of future sunspot cycles using the same predictor vector.

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