Uncertainty in continental-scale temperature predictions

Details Uncertainty in continental-scale temperature predictions Uncertainty in continental-scale temperature predictions

Jan 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006georl..3302708s&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 2, CiteID L02708

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10

Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325), Global Change: Earth System Modeling (1225), Global Change: Regional Climate Change, Atmospheric Processes: Model Calibration (1846)

Scientific paper

Anthropogenic climate change has been detected on continental-scale regions on all inhabited continents of the World. From knowledge of the relative contributions of greenhouse gases and other forcings to observed temperature change it is possible to infer the likely rates of future warming, consistent with past observed temperature changes. Probabilistic forecasts of future warming rates in six continental-scale regions have been calculated by assuming that there is a linear relationship between past and future fractional error in temperature change on these spatial scales. All regions are expected to warm over the next century with the largest uncertainty in future warming rates being in North America and Europe. More tightly constrained predictions are obtained if it is assumed that fractional errors in global mean temperature change scale the regional projections.

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