Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Feb 2003
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003georl..30c..50c&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 30, Issue 3, pp. 50-1, CiteID 1150, DOI 10.1029/2002GL016365
Mathematics
Probability
10
Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Tropical Meteorology, Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology (1620), Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Synoptic-Scale Meteorology, Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: General Or Miscellaneous
Scientific paper
Due to the diminishing Coriolis effect, the belt 300 km either side of the equator has been considered tropical cyclone-free. Typhoon Vamei, which developed near Singapore on 27 December 2001, was the first recorded tropical cyclone formation within 1.5 degrees of the equator. The development was the result of two interacting systems, a weak Borneo vortex that drifted into the southern tip of the South China Sea and remained there for four days, and a strong and persistent cold surge that created the large background cyclonic vorticity at the equator. The probability of a similar equatorial development is estimated to be once every 100-400 years.
Chang Chen-Peng
Kuo Hung-Chi
Liu Ching-Hwang
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