Towards the Empirical Forecast of Geomagnetic Storms Based on Solar Information

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

In this talk I will review our recent progress on the empirical forecast of geomagnetic storms based on solar information. Major findings can be summarized as follows. First, we presented a concept of storm probability map depending on CME parameters such as CME speed and longitude. Second, we suggested a CME earthward direction parameter directly estimated from coronagraph observations and demonstrated its importance in terms of the forecast of geomagnetic storms. Third, we presented the importance of solar magnetic field orientation for storm occurrence in terms of ICME classification. Fourth, the relationship among coronal hole-CIR-storm relationship has been investigated, Fifth, the storm forecast based on coronal hole information is in progress but challenging. We are attempting to apply machine learning technology to empirical space weather forecast. I will discuss the importance of these works and their future prospects.

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