Towards an Understanding of Stratospheric Temperature Trend Patterns in Southern Hemisphere High Latitudes

Computer Science – Sound

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3305 Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), 3319 General Circulation (1223), 3337 Global Climate Models (1626, 4928), 3349 Polar Meteorology

Scientific paper

Robust stratospheric temperature trend patterns are obtained in the winter and spring seasons in the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes from the satellite-borne Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) measurement since 1979. They are characterized by cooling and warming of comparable magnitudes that exhibit semi- annual variations. The observed trend pattern in September is attributable to a combination of ozone depletion that induces an overall cooling and acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation that induces an overall warming. The two terms are centered in different locations, and hence do not cancel but rather produce a wave-like structure. In October, the trend pattern is mainly contributed by a change in the quasi- stationary planetary waves, which display a remarkable shift in the phase, but the warming associated with the acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation largely cancels the cooling due to the ozone depletion. Close agreement is seen in the eddy component of the trend patterns between stratospheric temperature and ozone, supporting the dynamical linkage between temperature and ozone that drives the change patterns in both fields. Simulated temperature changes since 1979 from the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean general Circulation Model (AOGCM) experiments for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) are compared with the observations. In general, the simulated temperature changes are dominated by zonally symmetric ozone-induced cooling. The models fail to simulate the warming in the southern polar stratosphere, implying an underestimate of the acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. They also fail to simulate the quasi-stationary planetary wave changes observed in October.

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