Torus bifurcations, isolas and chaotic attractors in a simple dengue model with ADE and temporary cross immunity

Details Torus bifurcations, isolas and chaotic attractors in a simple dengue model with ADE and temporary cross immunity Torus bifurcations, isolas and chaotic attractors in a simple dengue model with ADE and temporary cross immunity

2008-06-27

arxiv.org/abs/0806.4576v1

Biology

Quantitative Biology

Populations and Evolution

13 pages, 4 fugures; proceedings of CMMSE 2008, ISBN 978-84-612-1982-7

Scientific paper

We analyse an epidemiological model of competing strains of pathogens and hence differences in transmission for first versus secondary infection due to interaction of the strains with previously aquired immunities, as has been described for dengue fever (in dengue known as antibody dependent enhancement, ADE). Such models show a rich variety of dynamics through bifurcations up to deterministic chaos. Including temporary cross-immunity even enlarges the parameter range of such chaotic attractors, and also gives rise to various coexisting attractors, which are difficult to identify by standard numerical bifurcation programs using continuation methods. A combination of techniques, including classical bifurcation plots and Lyapunov exponent spectra has to be applied in comparison to get further insight into such dynamical structures. Here we present for the first time multi-parameter studies in a range of biologically plausible values for dengue. The multi-strain interaction with the immune system is expected to also have implications for the epidemiology of other diseases.

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