The Theory of Fallible Probability and The Dynamics of Degrees of Belief

Details The Theory of Fallible Probability and The Dynamics of Degrees of Belief The Theory of Fallible Probability and The Dynamics of Degrees of Belief

2008-03-05

arxiv.org/abs/0803.0630v1

Mathematics

Probability

Scientific paper

This monograph is an account of the theory of fallible probability and of the dynamics of degrees of belief. It discusses the first order subjective theory in which first order degrees of belief are expressed by subjective probabilities and are updated by conditionalization (Bayes, 1764; Ramsey, 1926), gives an improved exposition of the greater part of the author's theory of Probability Dynamics (Nathan, 2006) which should replace the so-called Probability Kinematics (Jeffrey, 1965), resolves the problem of New Explanation of Old Evidence (Jeffrey, 1995), provides a Theory of Confirmation, and refutes the Principle of Reflection (Van Fraassen, 1984).

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