The short term forcecast of solar geoeffective flare events

Details The short term forcecast of solar geoeffective flare events The short term forcecast of solar geoeffective flare events

Sep 2003

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003esasp.535..559i&link_type=abstract

In: Solar variability as an input to the Earth's environment. International Solar Cycle Studies (ISCS) Symposium, 23 - 28 June 2

Computer Science

1

Solar Activity, Solar Flare Events, Magnetic Flux, Forecast

Scientific paper

The method for utilizing solar observational data to predict of the geoeffective solar flare events, that a large solar flare and solar filament ejection, is presented. Both phenomena are result of the new emergent flux distinct powerful and rate of emergence. The process of new magnetic flux emergence, its evolution and its interaction with already existing magnetic flux is sufficiently determined that allows us to predict as a period of flare energy release (PFER) so an importance of most solar flare in the flare set of this period. All large solar flares are always accompanied by a series of weaker events. They formed together the PFER confined within the time intervals about 55±20 hours, when the bulk of the middle and large solar flare are accomplished.

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