The probabilistic approach to estimating the origination of certain types of extreme solar events

Details The probabilistic approach to estimating the origination of certain types of extreme solar events The probabilistic approach to estimating the origination of certain types of extreme solar events

Dec 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009ge%26ae..49..898y&link_type=abstract

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, Volume 49, Issue 7, pp.898-903

Mathematics

Probability

Scientific paper

The probability of origination of superpower flares (super-flares) on the Sun, the power of which is higher than that of the observed flares, is discussed. The probabilistic approach, which makes it possible to find the analytical expression for the distribution of the observed values of any solar activity parameter and to extrapolate the obtained function to the range of values that were not observed previously, is proposed. The estimated probabilities of implementation of the Wolf number (400) and the flare proton fluxes in the Earth’s orbit (from 60000 to 160000 s-1 cm-2) are presented as an example. It has been obtained that these events occur ones per 10 000 and 100 years, respectively.

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