Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy
Scientific paper
Dec 1999
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1999pkas...14..103l&link_type=abstract
Publications of the Korean Astronomical Society, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 103-112
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astronomy
2
Solar Activity, Flare, Regression Method
Scientific paper
We have investigated the solar activity variation with period shorter than 1000 days, through Fourier transformation of solar cycle 21 and 22 data. And real time predictions of the flare maximum intensity have been made by multilinear regression method to allow the use of multivariate vectors of sunspot groups or active region characteristics. In addition, we have examined the evolution of magnetic field and current density in active regions at times before and after flare occurrence, to check short term variability of solar activity. According to our results of calculation, solar activity changes with periods of 27.1, 28.0, 52.1, 156.3, 333.3 days for solar cycle 21 and of 26.5, 27.1, 28.9, 54.1, 154, 176.7, 384.6 days for solar cycle 22. Periodic components of about 27, 28, 53, 155 days are found simultaneously at all of two solar cycles. Finally, from our intensive analysis of solar activity data for three different terms of 1977 ~ 1982, 1975 ~ 1998, and 1978 ~ 1982, we find out that our predictions coincide with observations at hit rate of 76%, 63%, 59% for all class flare and of 86%, 27%, 55% for M class flare respectively.
Jang Se Jin
Kim Kap-Sung
Kim Yeon Han
Lee Jinny
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