Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics
Scientific paper
Dec 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002chjaa...2..557w&link_type=abstract
Chinese Journal of Astronomy & Astrophysics, Vol. 2, p. 557-562
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
23
Sun: Sunspots, Sun: Activity
Scientific paper
We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2--119.4 for its maximum amplitude.
Gong Jian-Cun
Le Gui Ming
Liu Si-Qing
Sun Jing-Lan
Wang Jia-Long
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