The Planetary Index Ap, Ohl's Conjecture and the Predicted Size of Solar Cycle 23

Details The Planetary Index Ap, Ohl's Conjecture and the Predicted Size of Solar Cycle 23 The Planetary Index Ap, Ohl's Conjecture and the Predicted Size of Solar Cycle 23

Apr 1998

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1998aps..4cs..b111a&link_type=abstract

American Physical Society, Four Corners Section Meeting, 3-4 April 1998 Albuquerque, New Mexico, abstract #B1.11

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Scientific paper

It is believed that the solar polar field during the declining phase of a solar cycle serves as a seed for the future solar activity. This rationale is often invoked to justify the use of a methodology (proposed by Ohl) to predict the size of the solar cycle based on a precursor physical signature at the minimum of the previous cycle. The solar and planetary index (Ap) data are reviewed for the last sixtyseven years. The data indicate the existence of a three solar activity cycle quasi-periodicity in them. It is present also in other data sets such as the "aa" index and the historical aurora observed since ca 700 BC. A new cycle may have started after 1996. We show that the amplitude of the past six solar cycles exhibit a significant correlation with the annual mean Ap value at the start of the cycle. Ohl's conjecture is thereby supported. The linear correlation coefficient of + 0.84 is significant at > 95equation giving the fitted parameters predicts that the annual mean sunspot number count at the maximum of cycle 23 will be 119 +/- 30, based on a preliminary estimate of 8.5 for the annual mean Ap value for 1997. Our prediction of a modestly active cycle 23 (a la cycles 17 and 20) stands in contrast to that made by some other solar astronomers who are predicting a very active cycle 23 (a la cycle 19).

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