Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
May 2011
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011aas...21840607c&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, AAS Meeting #218, #406.07; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 43, 2011
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
Kepler is a space telescope that searches Sun-like stars for planets. Its major goal is to determine eta_Earth, the fraction of Sunlike stars that have planets like Earth. When a planet `transits’ or moves in front of a star, Kepler can measure the concomitant dimming of the starlight. From analysis of the first four months of those measurements for over 150,000 stars, Kepler's science team has determined sizes, surface temperatures, orbit sizes and periods for over a thousand new planet candidates. In this paper, we characterize the period probability distribution function of super-Earths and Neptunes with periods up to 132 days, and find three distinct period regimes. For planets with periods below 3 days the density increases sharply with increasing period; for periods between 3 and 30 days the density rises more gradually with increasing period, and for periods longer than 30 days, the density drops gradually with increasing period. We estimate that 1% to 3% of stars like the Sun are expected to have Earth analog planets, based on the Kepler data release of Feb 2011. The estimate will improve when it is based on the full 3.5 to 6 year Kepler data set. Accurate knowledge of eta_Earth is essential for the planning of future missions that will image and take spectra of Earthlike planets. Our result that Earths are relatively scarce means that a substantial effort will be needed to identify suitable target stars prior to these future missions.
Catanzarite Joseph
Shao Maxine
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