The NASA Marshall Solar Activity Model for Use in Predicting Satellite Lifetime

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Scientific paper

A principal source of unvertainty in estimating future orbital altitude densities for predicting satellite orbital lifetimes is the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) heat input values to use in the atmospheric model. The observed 10.7-cm solar radio flux (not adjusted to 1 AU) is used as a proxy for this most significant input, which is not otherwise available. A statistical technique was developed to estimate the future 13-month Zurich smoothed solar radio flux and geomagnetic index values. A principal application of this model is as an input to thermospheric density models used for satellite lifetime predictions.

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