The NASA Energy and Water cycle Extreme (NEWSE) Integration Project

Mathematics – Logic

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0495 Water/Energy Interactions (1878)

Scientific paper

Skillful predictions of water and energy cycle extremes (flood and drought) are elusive. To better understand the mechanisms responsible for water and energy extremes, and to make decisive progress in predicting these extremes, the collaborative NASA Energy and Water cycle Extremes (NEWSE) Integration Project, is studying these extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) during 2006-2007, including their relationships with continental and global scale processes, and assessment of their predictability on multiple space and time scales. It is our hypothesis that an integrative analysis of observed extremes which reflects the current understanding of the role of SST and soil moisture variability influences on atmospheric heating and forcing of planetary waves, incorporating recently available global and regional hydro- meteorological datasets (i.e., precipitation, water vapor, clouds, etc.) in conjunction with advances in data assimilation, can lead to new insights into the factors that lead to persistent drought and flooding. We will show initial results of this project, whose goals are toprovide an improved definition, attribution and prediction on sub-seasonal to interannual time scales, improved understanding of the mechanisms of decadal drought and its predictability, including the impacts of SST variability and deep soil moisture variability, and improved monitoring/attributions, with transition to applications; a bridging of the gap between hydrological forecasts and stakeholders (utilization of probabilistic forecasts, education, forecast interpretation for different sectors, assessment of uncertainties for different sectors, etc.). *The NEWSE Team is: Romanou, Anastasiam, Columbia U.; Brian Soden, U. Miami; William Lapenta, NASA- MSFC; Megan Larko, CREW; Bing Lin, NASA-LaRC; Christa Peters-Lidard, NASA-GSFC; Xiquan Dong, U. North Dakota; Debbie Belvedere, CREW; Mathew Sapiano, U. Maryland; Duane Waliser, NASA-JPL; Eni Njoku, NASA/JPL; Eric Fetzer, NASA-JPL; Eyal Amitai, NASA-GSFC; Xiaogang Gao, U. California, Irvine; George Huffman, NASA-GSFC & SSAI; Jared Entin, NASA; Joseph Santanello, NASA-GSFC; John Roads, UCSD; W. Timothy Liu, NASA-JPL; Lixin Lu, Colorado State U.; Zhengzhao Luo, Colorado State U.; Michael Bosilovich, NASA-GSFC; Michael Jasinski, NASA-GSFC; William Olson, NASA-GSFC & UMBC-GEST; Pete Robertson, NASA-MSFC; Phil Arkin, U. Maryland; Paul Houser, CREW & GMU; Ralph Ferraro, NOAA; Pete Robertson, NASA-MSFC; Robert Schiffer; UMBC-GEST; Sujay Kumar, NASA-GSFC; Joseph A. Santanello, NASA-GSFC; Tristan L'Ecuyer, Colorado State U.; Wei-Kuo Tao; NASA-GSFC; Xia Feng; George Mason U.

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