Economy – Quantitative Finance – Trading and Market Microstructure
Scientific paper
2009-01-24
Economy
Quantitative Finance
Trading and Market Microstructure
changed from LaTeX to Word; accepted for publication in Quantitative Finance
Scientific paper
A representative investor generates realistic and complex security price paths by following this trading strategy: if, a few ticks ago, the market asset had two consecutive upticks or two consecutive downticks, then sell, and otherwise buy. This simple, unique, and robust model is the smallest possible deterministic model of financial complexity, and its generalization leads to complex variety. Compared to a random walk, the minimal model generates time series with fatter tails and more frequent crashes, thus more closely matching the real world. It does all this without any parameter fitting.
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