The marginalization paradox and the formal Bayes' law

Details The marginalization paradox and the formal Bayes' law The marginalization paradox and the formal Bayes' law

2007-08-10

arxiv.org/abs/0708.1350v1

Mathematics

Statistics Theory

Presented at Maxent 2007, Saratoga Springs, NY, July 2007

Scientific paper

10.1063/1.2821304

It has recently been shown that the marginalization paradox (MP) can be resolved by interpreting improper inferences as probability limits. The key to the resolution is that probability limits need not satisfy the formal Bayes' law, which is used in the MP to deduce an inconsistency. In this paper, I explore the differences between probability limits and the more familiar pointwise limits, which do imply the formal Bayes' law, and show how these differences underlie some key differences in the interpretation of the MP.

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