Statistics – Applications
Scientific paper
Mar 1994
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1994icar..108...18l&link_type=abstract
Icarus, vol. 108, no. 1, p. 18-36
Statistics
Applications
395
Applications Programs (Computers), Astronomical Models, Comets, Evolution (Development), Interplanetary Medium, Orbit Calculation, Orbital Elements, Solar System, Equations Of Motion, Hamiltonian Functions, Oort Cloud
Scientific paper
We have developed and tested a computer code to follow the long-term dynamical evolution of a swarm of test particles in the solar system. The technique effciently and accurately handles close approaches between test particles and planets while retaining the powerful features of recently developed mixed variable symplectic integrators. We use the code to numerically integrate the orbits of the known short-period comets under the influence of the Sun and all planets except Mercury and Pluto, for times up to 107 years. It is found under a classification based on period that most comets move between Jupiter-family and Halley-family orbits many times in their dynamical lifetimes. We adopt a classification that defines Jupiter-family comets (JFCs) as comets with T greater than 2 and Halley-family comets (HFCs) as those with T less than 2. In this scheme, less than 8% of comets change families during the integration and most of those that change tend to remain near the Tisserand dividing line throughout. Thus, the JFCs are dynamically distinct from the HFCs. We find that in our forward integration, 92% of comets are ejected from the solar system, and that approximately 6% are destroyed by becoming sun-grazers. The number of sun-grazers is far more than would be expected from the existing analytic theories. The median lifetime of all known short-period comets from the current time to ultimate destruction or ejection is approximately 4.5 x 105 years. The very flat inclination distribution of (JFCs) found to become more distended as it ages. Since JFCs are dynamically distinct from HFCs, they must have an inclination distribution, when they first become visible, that is even flatter than that currently observed. For reasonable values of the physical lifetime before fading, we calculate that there should be roughly 5-20 times as many extinct JFCs as currently known JFCs.
Duncan Martin J.
Levison Harold F.
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