The Kruskal Count

Details The Kruskal Count The Kruskal Count

2001-10-13

arxiv.org/abs/math/0110143v1

The Mathematics of Preference, Choice and Order. Essays in Honor of Peter J. Fishburn (Stephen Brams, William V. Gehrlein and

Mathematics

Probability

22 pages, latex

Scientific paper

The Kruskal Count is a card trick invented by Martin J. Kruskal in which a magician "guesses" a card selected by a subject according to a certain counting procedure. With high probability the magician can correctly "guess" the card. The success of the trick is based on a mathematical principle related to coupling methods for Markov chains. This paper analyzes in detail two simplified variants of the trick and estimates the probability of success. The model predictions are compared with simulation data for several variants of the actual trick.

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