Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Aug 1976
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1976jbis...29..445w&link_type=abstract
British Interplanetary Society, Journal, vol. 29, July-Aug. 1976, p. 445-464.
Mathematics
Logic
1
Biological Evolution, Exobiology, Extraterrestrial Life, Human Beings, Galactic Evolution, Mathematical Models, Random Processes, Solar System, Stellar Evolution
Scientific paper
In discussing the possible existence or characteristics of extraterrestrial civilizations, many conclusions are based on the characteristics of terrestrial life. This paper gives an explicit expression of this 'human analogy' and discusses its basis, uses, and limitations. It is concluded that the human analogy provides the best available quantitative and qualitative estimate of many characteristics of possible extraterrestrial civilizations. As a representative application of its use, an evolutionary model for the distribution of advanced civilizations is presented which results in an estimate for the present epoch of 500 million advanced technical civilizations in the Galaxy, or 0.5 per cent of the galactic stellar population. It is further estimated that visits to the solar system by star-faring civilizations are presently occurring approximately one every 750,000 years and that at least some artifacts of these visits may be present in the solar system.
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