The Framework MHD Simulations of Active Region Evolution Driven by Sequences of Vector Magnetograms

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Space weather is driven by magnetic changes on the Sun -- and a physics-based modeling system with predictive capability must incorporate time-dependent solar magnetic field measurements with self-consistent driving velocities for the erupting solar plasma.
The UC Berkeley MURI team is modeling active region AR-8210, which produced several Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) around 1 May 1998, and for which we have extensive vector magnetic field measurements. We also plan to perform similar models of AR 8038, which produced a flare and CME on May 12, 1997.
The May 1 1998 data is being reduced and analyzed by Dr. Stephane Regnier at Montana State University. He then generates a nonlinear force-free field model of the coronal magnetic field to be used as initial conditions for time-dependent MHD models that are being run by Dr. William Abbett at UC Berkeley.
In order to perform the MHD simulations, it is necessary to find a velocity field which is physically consistent with the observed changes in the vector field measured at the photosphere. Dr. Dana Longcope has derived a new mathematical framework to find all 3 components of the velocity field; Dr. Brian Welsch is testing this technique, as well as other methods, such as local correlation tracking.
Ms. Loraine Lundquist is investigating energy balance models of the corona in active regions, with particular application to the state of AR 8210 on May 1st. She has developed a false coronal emission map of 8210 that compares favorably to Yohkoh SXT observations taken on the same day.

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