The effects of low solar activity upon the cosmic radiation and the interplanetary magnetic field over the past 10,000 years, and implications for the future. (Invited)

Details The effects of low solar activity upon the cosmic radiation and the interplanetary magnetic field over the past 10,000 years, and implications for the future. (Invited) The effects of low solar activity upon the cosmic radiation and the interplanetary magnetic field over the past 10,000 years, and implications for the future. (Invited)

Dec 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009agufm.u34a..02m&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2009, abstract #U34A-02

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

[2104] Interplanetary Physics / Cosmic Rays, [2134] Interplanetary Physics / Interplanetary Magnetic Fields, [2162] Interplanetary Physics / Solar Cycle Variations, [7536] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Solar Activity Cycle

Scientific paper

The paleo-cosmic ray records based on the radionuclides 10Be and 14 C show that the Sun has experienced twenty two extended periods of low activity (similar to, or longer than the Maunder Minimum) in the past 10,000 years, and many more periods of reduced activity for 2 or more solar cycles similar to the period 1880-1910. The 10,000 yr record shows that solar activity has exhibited three persistent periodicities that modulate the amplitude of the Hale (11/22 year) cycle. They are the Gleissberg (~85 yr); the de Vries (~208 yr); and the Hallstatt (~2200 yr) periodicities. It is possible that the Sun is entering a somewhat delayed Gleissberg repetition of the 1880-1910 period of reduced activity or a de Vries repetition of the Dalton Minimum of 1800-1820; or a combination of both. The historic record shows that the cosmic ray intensity at sunspot minimum increases substantially during periods of reduced solar activity- during the Dalton minimum it was twice the present-day sunspot minimum intensity at 2GeV/nucleon ; and 10 times greater at 100 MeV/nucleon. The Hale cycle of solar activity continued throughout the Spoerer (1420-1540) and Maunder Minima, and it appears possible that the local interstellar cosmic ray spectrum was occasionally incident on Earth. Using the cosmic ray transport equation to invert the paleo-cosmic ray record shows that the magnetic field was <1nT at Hale minima during the Spoerer Minimum and late in the Maunder Minimum. The Sun was at a minimum of the Hallstatt (2200yr) cycle of activity in the 15th century, and is now on a steadily rising plane of activity. Paleo-cosmic ray evidence suggests that there was a greater production of impulsive solar energetic particle events in the solar cycles of reduced solar activity 1880-1910. Based on these observations, three scenarios for the next several decades will be outlined- (a) a single, deep sunspot minimum followed by an active sun; (b) several cycles of reduced solar activity similar to 1880-1910; and (c) a “Grand Minimum” with one or more 11 year cycles of very low activity similar to the Dalton Minimum.

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