The effects of atmospheric variability on energy utilization and conservation

Mathematics

Scientific paper

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Atmospheric Models, Earth Atmosphere, Periodic Variations, Forecasting, Mathematical Models, Southern Oscillation, Weather

Scientific paper

Teleconnections between precipitation surges in the equatorial Pacific, which are tied to the negative phase of the southern oscillation, and midlatitude planetary wave patterns are described. These connections are also evident in long term trend patterns of the winter time midlatitude circulation. Statistically significant planetary wave pattern differences between wet and dry monsoon summers exist in midlatitudes already several months prior to the onset of the monsoon. Numerical model indicate that the frequency of the quasibiennial oscillation can be modulated by variable momentum fluxes in the tropics. Planetary wave pattern variability is significantly influenced by variations in heat source and sink distributions at the Earth's surface. This fact is demonstrated by experiments with a simple, two layer, nonlinear, quasigeostrophic global general circulation model. Preliminary tests of this model were restricted to changes in sea surface temperature anomalies. A heat budget equation was tested to estimate the effects of changes in the surface energy budget on continental surface temperature anomalies. The modelling of urban and regional energy demand as a function of weather variability is summarized.

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