Statistics – Applications
Scientific paper
2011-08-03
Annals of Applied Statistics 2011, Vol. 5, No. 2A, 746-772
Statistics
Applications
Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS424 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Ins
Scientific paper
10.1214/10-AOAS424
We study the causal effect of winning an Oscar Award on an actor or actress's survival. Does the increase in social rank from a performer winning an Oscar increase the performer's life expectancy? Previous studies of this issue have suffered from healthy performer survivor bias, that is, candidates who are healthier will be able to act in more films and have more chance to win Oscar Awards. To correct this bias, we adapt Robins' rank preserving structural accelerated failure time model and $g$-estimation method. We show in simulation studies that this approach corrects the bias contained in previous studies. We estimate that the effect of winning an Oscar Award on survival is 4.2 years, with a 95% confidence interval of $[-0.4,8.4]$ years. There is not strong evidence that winning an Oscar increases life expectancy.
Foster Dean P.
Han Xu
Patel Vishal
Small Dylan S.
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