The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a highly contagious disease in Sweden

Details The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a highly contagious disease in Sweden The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a highly contagious disease in Sweden

2005-05-24

arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0505044v2

Biology

Quantitative Biology

Quantitative Methods

Scientific paper

Travel restrictions may reduce the spread of a contagious disease that threatens public health. In this study we investigate what effect different levels of travel restrictions may have on the speed and geographical spread of an outbreak of a disease similar to SARS. We use a stochastic simulation model of the Swedish population, calibrated with survey data of travel patterns between municipalities in Sweden collected over three years. We find that a ban on journeys longer than 50 km drastically reduces the speed and the geographical spread of outbreaks, even with when compliance is less than 100%. The result is found to be robust for different rates of inter-municipality transmission intensities. Travel restrictions may therefore be an effective way to mitigate the effect of a future outbreak.

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