The Discordance of Individual Risk Estimates and the Reference Class Problem

Details The Discordance of Individual Risk Estimates and the Reference Class Problem The Discordance of Individual Risk Estimates and the Reference Class Problem

2010-01-14

arxiv.org/abs/1001.2499v1

Biology

Quantitative Biology

Quantitative Methods

13 pages, 2 figures

Scientific paper

Multivariate methods that relate outcomes to risk factors have been adopted clinically to individualize treatment. This has promoted the belief that individuals have a true or unique risk. The logic of assigning an individual a single risk value has been criticized since 1866. The reason is that any individual can be simultaneously considered a member of different groups, with each group having its own risk level (the reference class problem). Lemeshow et al. provided well-documented examples of remarkable discordance between predictions for an individual by different valid predictive methods utilizing different risk factors. The prevalence of such discordance is unknown as it is rarely evaluated, but must be substantial due to the abundance of risk factors. Lemeshow et al. cautioned against using ICU mortality predictions for the provision of care to individual patients. If individual risk estimates are used clinically, users should be aware that valid methods may give very different results.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

The Discordance of Individual Risk Estimates and the Reference Class Problem does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with The Discordance of Individual Risk Estimates and the Reference Class Problem, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and The Discordance of Individual Risk Estimates and the Reference Class Problem will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-355326