Other
Scientific paper
Apr 2003
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003eaeja......744k&link_type=abstract
EGS - AGU - EUG Joint Assembly, Abstracts from the meeting held in Nice, France, 6 - 11 April 2003, abstract #744
Other
Scientific paper
An analysis of 10Be production rate (Δ10Be) series in Dye-3 ice probe /Greenland/ has been made. By using of T-R periodogramm analysis a cycles of 8-14, 18-24, 40-44, 52, 66-70, 115-120, 190 and 360 years are detected. The correlation analysis of Δ10Be and group sunspot numbers index /Rg/ for the period 1610-1985 point, that there is a phase shifting between the both series of 6-6.5 years. It correspond of the "cosmogenic" origin of 10Be in stratosphere by the galactic cosmic rays, wich maximal production rate is in periods of solar activity minimums and very short "resident time" of this isotope /˜1 year/. By T-R analysus of the Rg-series powerful cycles of 10-11 /Schwabe-Wolf/, 118 and 193 years has been obtained. There are weak spures of cyclity at 29-31, 38, 52 and 66-70 years too. However the magnitudes of quasy 11 and 20-22 years oscilations in Δ10Be are low. The fine structure of T-R spectra in regions 8-14 and 18-24 years is very complicate /multipletic/. In other hand there is a evidence that weack quasy 10 years cycle in Δ10Be exist during the Maunder minimum in 17th century. The fine structure of the Schwabe-Wolf cycle in Rg series is too complicate. Except the main local peak in the T-R spectra at T=11 years, there is a secondary strong maximum at T=10 years and weaker peaks at 8.5, 11.75 and 12.25 years. The relative powerful 52 year cycle in Δ10Be series have an analog in sunspot index of assymetry series, wich is derived on the base of Zurich series after 1871 AD. It correspond of increasing and decreasing of the sunspot activity in the northen hemisphere of the Sun by the same cycle. The main T-R spectra features of Δ10Be series in region of the low frecuences /powerful subcenturial and centurial cycles/ are similar to the same in large number of tree rings data series in Northern hemisphere during 15th -20th centuries /published in the International Tree Rings Data Base/. This is indirect evidence that the Δ10Be data are rather an indicator for the climate and the solar - climatic relatiaons in the past. On the base of the T-R spectra a model of Δ10Be series has been made. Its extrapolation for the next 200 years predict a significant increasing of 10Be production rate during the 21th century. It can be interpreted as a forcomming of new supercenturial solar minimum, similar to the Dalton minimum at the beginning of the 19th century and for a possible climate cooling during the next few decades too.
Komitov Boris
Minev P.
Nedev P.
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