The Challenge of Fulfilling a Perplexing Space Weather User Requirement

Details The Challenge of Fulfilling a Perplexing Space Weather User Requirement The Challenge of Fulfilling a Perplexing Space Weather User Requirement

Dec 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006agufmsa43a..04k&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2006, abstract #SA43A-04

Other

7514 Energetic Particles (2114), 7845 Particle Acceleration, 7924 Forecasting (2722), 7938 Impacts On Humans, 7944 Ionospheric Effects On Radio Waves

Scientific paper

To fly commercial aircraft over the poles, it is necessary to ensure that air-ground and air-air communications be maintained throughout the flight. Some U. S. carriers have requested a seven hour lead-time for predictions of HF outages, the primary communication means for flying over the pole. This very difficult-to-meet specification results from the necessity to make alternative fueling arrangements, schedule additional flight crews, modify the loading of the aircraft, etc., to minimize the costs due to redirecting aircraft away from the optimal polar route. To satisfy this stringent requirement, better predictions of solar energetic particle (SEPs) events are necessary. Even soft SEPs can cause HF outages lasting for hours. This requirement challenges the international science community to significantly improve current predictive methodologies. Presently, a 1-2 hour lead-time may be the longest that can be obtained with a reasonable false alarm rate. Globally, there are a number of new programs, organized under the auspices of the International Space Environment Service (ISES), to facilitate progress in meeting the airlines' requirement. The Regional Warning Center in Canada is implementing a network of riometers at high latitudes, so to detect ionospheric conditions that result in HF outages. This chain is now being deployed. The Regional Warning Centers in Russia, China, the United States and Japan are working with the Canadians, to acquire and make available, other real-time data relevant to the problem. These data include solar, interplanetary, geomagnetic and ionospheric data. Clearly this challenge spans the realm of space science, from the solar and galactic origins of energetic particles, to the D-Region of Earth's ionosphere. The presentation will lay out a roadmap for an iterative solution to the prediction challenge, and identify some of the key areas to be addressed.

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