Statistics – Methodology
Scientific paper
Dec 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agufm.v43d2177e&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #V43D-2177
Statistics
Methodology
8419 Volcano Monitoring (7280), 8428 Explosive Volcanism, 8488 Volcanic Hazards And Risks
Scientific paper
Chaitén volcano, southern Chile, began erupting on 2 May 2008. The eruption produced 3 Plinian eruption pulses between May 2 and 8. Between Plinian phases the volcano emitted a constant column of ash to approximately 10 km, gradually diminishing to approximately 3 km by the end of June. The eruption of Chaitén was remarkable on several counts--it was the first rhyolite eruption on the planet since Novarupta (Katmai) erupted in 1912, and Chaitén had apparently lain dormant for approximately 9300 years. Though Chaitén is located in a generally sparsely populated region, the eruption had widespread impacts. More than 5000 people had to be quickly evacuated from proximal areas and aviation in southern South America was disrupted for weeks. Within 10 days secondary lahars had overrun much of the town of Chaitén complicating the prospects of the townspeople to return to their homes. Prior to the eruption onset, the nearest real-time seismic station was 300 km distant, and earthquakes were not felt by local citizens until approximately 30 hours before the eruption onset. No other signs of unrest were noted. Owing to the lack of near-field monitoring, and the nighttime eruption onset, there was initial confusion about which volcano was erupting: Chaitén or nearby Michinmahuida. Lack of monitoring systems at Chaitén meant that warning time for the public at risk was extremely short, and owing to the nature of the eruption and the physical geography of the area, it was very difficult to install monitoring instruments to track its progress after the eruption started. The lack of geophysical monitoring also means that an important data set on precursory behavior for silicic systems was not collected. With more than 120 Pleistocene to Holocene-age volcanoes within its continental territory, Chile is one of the more volcanically active countries in the world. The eruption of Chaitén has catalyzed the creation of a new program within the Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería (SERNAGEOMIN) that will emphasize studies of volcanic history, volcano hazard assessments, and establishing real time monitoring at 43 of the highest threat volcanoes. To prioritize monitoring and hazard mitigation efforts in Chile, SERNAGEOMIN has adopted the threat assessment methodology developed by the USGS for U.S. volcanoes along with the USGS conceptual framework for a National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS). When complete, the new Chilean volcano monitoring networks will close one of the largest gaps in global volcano monitoring.
Ewert J. W.
Lara L. E.
Moreno Heidi
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