Testing the astronomical theory with a coupled climate-ice-sheet model.

Mathematics – Logic

Scientific paper

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Earth: Climatic Changes, Earth: Orbit

Scientific paper

Ice, land and deep-sea cores have provided strong evidence that orbital perturbations are of primary importance in the timing of the waxing and waning of Pleistocene continental ice sheets. Spectral analyses of climatic records have shown that, at least near the frequencies of variation in obliquity and precession, a considerable fraction of the climate variance is driven in some way by insolation changes accompanying changes in the Earth's orbit. The exceptional strength of the dominating 100,000-year cycle needs a non-linear amplification of the eccentricity-precession cycles from the ice sheets themselves and related mechanisms. Now that the astronomical model has passed both severe statistical tests and some tests of physical plausibility, the influence of orbital variations is thought to be real enough to be tested with numerical climate models. In this paper, a 2.5-D time-dependent climate model taking into account the feedbacks between the atmosphere, the upper ocean, the sea ice, the ice sheets and the lithosphere, is used to confirm this thesis. The model results produce long-term variations of the global ice volume over the past 125,000 years that are in general agreement with the most recent geological reconstructions.

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