Testing Automated Solar Flare and Coronal Mass Ejection Forecasting With 13 Years of MDI Synoptic Magnetograms

Details Testing Automated Solar Flare and Coronal Mass Ejection Forecasting With 13 Years of MDI Synoptic Magnetograms Testing Automated Solar Flare and Coronal Mass Ejection Forecasting With 13 Years of MDI Synoptic Magnetograms

May 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009spd....40.1610m&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, SPD meeting #40, #16.10; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 41, p.841

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

Scientific paper

This investigation uses the entire set of synoptic line-of-site magnetograms from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory's (SOHO) Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) to calculate multiple characteristics of the magnetic field in active regions, including measures of nonpotentiality, the gradient-weighted length of neutral lines, the distance between the flux weighted centers of the bipoles, and time variation of total flux. These measures are calculated for the disk passage of 1075 NOAA active regions spanning Solar Cycle 23 from 1996 - 2009 in an attempt to determine the ability of line-of-sight magnetograms to be used as a predictor of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and/or solar flares. Several investigators have analyzed photospheric magnetic field observations to determine the potential for solar flare and CME prediction [Falconer, 2001, 2003, 2008; Leka and Barnes, 2003, 2006; Song, 2006]. Using data from a variety of sources, both line-of-sight and vector magnetograms have been studied. Until now the studies have been restricted to a relatively small sample size.
This expansive study is accomplished by using an IDL code that automatically searches the MDI database for data related to any NOAA AR, uses a three-iteration primary neutral line finder on remapped data [Bokenkamp, 2007], applies a constant-alpha force-free field model [Allisandrakis, 1981], and calculates several measures of nonpotentiality [Falconer, 2008]. Superposed epoch plots were produced for these measures surrounding all X-class, M-class, C-class and weaker flares, as well as active regions that did not flare at all for the entirety of Solar Cycle 23. These plots were used to seek out any pre- or post- flare signatures with the advantage of the capability to resolve weak signals.

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