Temporal Evolution of Energetic Electron Precipitation as a Promising Tool for Earthquake Prediction Research: Analysis of IDP / DEMETER Observations

Details Temporal Evolution of Energetic Electron Precipitation as a Promising Tool for Earthquake Prediction Research: Analysis of IDP / DEMETER Observations Temporal Evolution of Energetic Electron Precipitation as a Promising Tool for Earthquake Prediction Research: Analysis of IDP / DEMETER Observations

Jul 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010aspc..424...67a&link_type=abstract

Proceedings of the 9th International Conference of the Hellenic Astronomical Society, proceedings of a conference held 20-24 Sep

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In this study we present spatial and temporal correlation results of energetic (70 - 2350 keV) electron bursts (EBs) detected by the DEMETER spacecraft (700 km alt.) before great (M>6.7) Earthquakes (EQs) in general and statistical results for 13 EQs in and near Japan. The EBs were found to show a characteristic flux-time profile, time duration and energy spectrum and are associated with VLF activity. The most important finding of this study is a characteristic pattern of the temporal distribution of the daily number of EBs that shows an increasing at the first phase (which starts 2-4 weeks before the EQ), and a decreasing in the second phase, that reaches a local minimum around the occurrence time of the EQ, in agreement with some other physical parameters related with EQs. This temporal evolution pattern allows the determination of a first signal, a long time (several days to few weeks) before a possible intense seismic event, and a sort time (few to several hours) signal before the coming EQ. The statistical analysis of EBs of this type confirms a strong correlation between the number of EBs observed near the EQ epicenter and all over the globe, suggesting a useful prediction research tool even for distant EQs.

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