Subsurface Flow Properties of Flaring versus Flare-Quiet Active Regions

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

We apply discriminant analysis to 1009 active regions and their subsurface flow parameters, such as vorticity and kinetic helicity density, with the goal of distinguishing between flaring and non-flaring active regions. Flow and flux variables lead to better classification rates than a no-event prediction. The Heidke skill score, which measures the improvement over predicting that no events occur, increases by about 25% and 50% for C- and M-class flares when several subsurface characteristics are included compared to using a single magnetic flux measure.

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