Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Jun 2010
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010georl..3711401p&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 37, Issue 11, CiteID L11401
Mathematics
Logic
7
Hydrology: Streamflow, Hydrology: Watershed, Hydrology: Precipitation (3354), Hydrology: Time Series Analysis (1988, 3270, 4277, 4475), Hydrology: Hydrological Cycles And Budgets (1218, 1655)
Scientific paper
Southwest Western Australia (SWWA) has experienced a 15-20% reduction in rainfall since the 1970s with severe reductions in inflows to Perth drinking water reservoirs. To quantify rainfall and runoff patterns, we used trend and change point analyses for a 50 year record (1950-2008) and in the last two decades (1989-2008). From 1950-2008, trend tests showed significant declines in annual rainfall and runoff with corresponding change points for both rainfall and flow in the late 1960s or mid-1970s. In the more recent record (1989-2008), runoff declined in the majority of catchments, but rainfall did not show a significant downward trend. Rather, streamflow decline was observed as a step change in response to the occurrence of below-average rainfall years. A shift from perennial to ephemeral streams and a decline in the runoff coefficient (runoff/rainfall) in the last decade suggests a new hydrologic regime has developed with important implications for future surface water supply.
Hughes Justin D.
Petrone Kevin C.
Silberstein Richard P.
Van Niel Thomas G.
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