Computer Science
Scientific paper
Apr 2003
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003eaeja.....7125b&link_type=abstract
EGS - AGU - EUG Joint Assembly, Abstracts from the meeting held in Nice, France, 6 - 11 April 2003, abstract #7125
Computer Science
Scientific paper
We use an empirical statistical model to demonstrate significant skill in forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). Forecast skill derives from long-lived circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and is greatest during the extended winter season when the stratosphere and troposphere are coupled by vertically-propagating planetary-scale waves. A comparison to the Southern Hemisphere, together with modeling evidence, indicates that predictability of the AO depends on 1) the long timescale of circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and 2) the vertical coupling of the troposphere and stratosphere by planetary-scale waves. Circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere affect the troposphere through a mechanism involving changes to waves and momentum fluxes in the upper troposphere, which induce surface pressure changes corresponding to the AO.
Baldwin M.
Charlton Andrew
Dunkerton Timothy
O'Neill Alan
Stephenson D.
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