Stochastic Modelling of Ejection from Comets and Asteroids (Models and Results)

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

On the basis of the stochastic models devoloped and methods of the their realization by the authors. Computer experiments on the study of the asteroid 3200 Phaethon (TB 1983) and Halley's comet have been carried out and their probable connection with particular meteor streams have been defined. A probability measure in the space of the orbits elements of Keplerian's have been obtained; this allows us to give a reliable description the space structure of the set of orbits on which the substance ejection is the most probable. Quasi periodicity in the behaviour of the probabilistic measure which allows one to reveal the layered formation structure under specific range and initial ejection conditions has been defined. The estimates of expectation and dispersion of orbital elements of the substance ejected reflect the quantitative space parameters of the new formation. The estimates of the probabilistic measure obtained for D - criterion meanings give a qualitative description of the extent of filling the space with fragments both relative to the parent body and the possible meteor stream.

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