Statistics of the logarithmic flare index

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics

Scientific paper

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Indexes (Ratios), Logarithms, Normal Density Functions, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Solar Flares, Solar Flux, Solar Rotation, Standard Deviation

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Scientific paper

Abstract

In an effort to establish principles for the study and prediction of medium-term solar flare activity, it is noted that the logarithm of the daily flare index, rather than the index itself, is normally distributed over a time interval. This makes it possible to use a random normal generator to fill in values on 'blank' days when the flare activity is below the report threshold. An unbroken series of the logarithmic flare index was constructed in this way for the solar rotations 1642-1684. The mean and standard deviation in each rotation were calculated and tabulated. These were found to be closely correlated with the mean and standard deviation of the solar radio flux at 2800 MHz for the same rotations.

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