Statistical Modeling of Solar Flare Activity from Empirical Time Series of Soft X-ray Solar Emission

Details Statistical Modeling of Solar Flare Activity from Empirical Time Series of Soft X-ray Solar Emission Statistical Modeling of Solar Flare Activity from Empirical Time Series of Soft X-ray Solar Emission

2008-05-07

arxiv.org/abs/0805.0968v1

The Astrophysical Journal 693 (2009) 1877

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

21 pages, 7 figures

Scientific paper

10.1088/0004-637X/693/2/1877

A time series of soft X-ray emission observed on 1974-2007 years (GOES) is analyzed. We show that in the periods of high solar activity 1977-1981, 1988-1992, 1999-2003 the energy statistics of soft X-ray solar flares for class M and C is well described by a FARIMA time series with Pareto innovations. The model is characterized by two effects. One of them is a long-range dependence (long-term memory), and another corresponds to heavy-tailed distributions. Their parameters are statistically stable enough during the periods. However, when the solar activity tends to minimum, they change essentially. We discuss possible causes of this evolution and suggest a statistical model for predicting the flare energy statistics.

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