Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment

Details Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment

Nov 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007geoji.171..797f&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Journal International, Volume 171, Issue 2, pp. 797-806.

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

Long, And Short-Time Earthquake Behaviour, Low Seismicity Regions, Monte Carlo Simulations, Probabilistic Hazard Analysis, Statistical Analysis

Scientific paper

The time-dependence of earthquake occurrence is mostly ignored in standard seismic hazard assessment even though earthquake clustering is well known. In this work, we attempt to quantify the impact of more realistic dynamics on the seismic hazard estimations. We include the time and space dependences between earthquakes into the hazard analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. Our target region is the Lower Rhine Embayment, a low seismicity area in Germany. Including aftershock sequences by using the epidemic type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, we find that on average the hypothesis of uncorrelated random earthquake activity underestimates the hazard by 5-10 per cent. Furthermore, we show that aftershock activity of past large earthquakes can locally increase the hazard even centuries later. We also analyse the impact of the so-called long-term behaviour, assuming a quasi-periodic occurrence of main events on a major fault in that region. We found that a significant impact on hazard is only expected for the special case of a very regular recurrence of the main shocks.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-740261