Space Weather Prediction Using a Hybrid Physics/Black-box Model

Details Space Weather Prediction Using a Hybrid Physics/Black-box Model Space Weather Prediction Using a Hybrid Physics/Black-box Model

Dec 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006agufmsa53a1360s&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2006, abstract #SA53A-1360

Computer Science

Performance

2722 Forecasting (7924, 7964), 2788 Magnetic Storms And Substorms (7954), 7924 Forecasting (2722), 7954 Magnetic Storms (2788), 7959 Models

Scientific paper

A hybrid physics/black-box approach is used to model the nightside magnetosphere. The physics based model is a state-space description of the global energy components of the system called WINDMI. A nonlinear system identification technique using multi-resolution wavelet decomposition is developed that incorporates the physics model as part of a larger hybrid model. The input to the hybrid model is the solar wind velocity, Interplanetary Magnetic Field, and the proton density measured by the Advance Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite. The output of the combined model is the westward auroral index AL, and the equatorial storm time index Dst. The performance of the hybrid model is evaluated using historical geomagnetic storm datasets.

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